Premier League Betting Tips: Liverpool vs Manchester City 31.12.2016
Should we expect a defensive football both from the Merseysides and the Citizens? Will Klopp and Guardiola deny their philosophy and roll the ball in midfield? Hardly. Certainly, a draw is a good result in the match, but then Chelsea can stretch their lead more. All the more, the Londoners will play at home against Stoke City. No, the coaches will have no thoughts about the draw, the game will be only for a victory.
Surely, head-to-head matchups have been very hot in recent years. MC started to fight for the top places finally, when the sheikhs purchased the club. The Merseysides and the Citizens have met 20 times since then, and total over 2.5 worked in 15 of those clashes. The last 10 matches were 9 total passes. Moreover, Liverpool and MC have scored 2.5 total over in the Premier League head-to-head matchups since 2012. It means 9 games in a row! Both teams scored 5 without shut out even in such an important match of the 2013 – 2014 season in 34 tour. So, it is very unlikely they will do this now, when they need to catch up with Chelsea.
Liverpool average is 3.6 goals per match in the current season. That is to say, the Merseysides are the top Premier League team at the moment. The citizens are close with an average of 3.4 goals scored in their matches. Liverpool home matches are even more “hot” – 3.9 goals per game, which is the best in the league. On the contrary, MC are more successful in away matches – 3.7 goals on average. Only Crystal Palace has got higher rate in the away matches.
That’s not surprising that teams often break through total over 2.5. This rate worked in 13 from 18 MC games, ie. 72% of the matches, and in 11 of 17 Liverpool games, is 65% of matches. The Merseysides home matches are even cooler, as 5 total passes in 7 matches or in 72% of matches. As for the Citizens away matches, they score in one match after the other through total over 2.5. This rate worked in 8 of 9 away games in the Premier League. The only one total under 2.5 worked in the match against Tottenham. And even then, if the Spurs had scored penalty, now MC would have had 100% total over 2.5 in an away match.
Guardiola and Klopp didn’t have a special concerrn about their teams defense in summer. As a result, the Liverpool and MC game styles allow opponents to flee in a counterattack, and the defenders themselves can bring the goal for no reason at all. Take, for example, Antonio goal into the Reds gates, he got a goal chance almost out of the blue. Or the goal of the Bournemouth midfielder Fraser, when the three Cherries players broke Liverpool defense. The goalkeepers Karius and Mignolet played extremely unstable at that.
Let it be for Liverpool, but the Mancity central defense are the players of the championship level. Ottamendi and Stones are not top-level club players. You shouldn’t expect the titles in the Champions League or Premier League with such poor defense lineup. I will not remember all the matches, but recent examples are enough. “Awesome” Ottamendi played in the match against Arsenal, when he missed Sánchez, or Stones pass to Vardy. In both cases, as you remember, the opponents scored goals. And Bravo arrival still falls short of expectations he had for.
Both teams have 20 conceded goals on their account (Liverpool vs Stoke game is not included) and 4 clean sheets in the current season as a result. At the same time Liverpool had two home clean sheets. One was against Sunderland, which scored few in general and had serious team losses. Another with Manchester United, where Mour clearly put a bet to take 1 point. The Citizens didn’t concede only from Hull and West Bromwich in away matches. And it is noteworthy the Tigers scored the least in the Premier League, and the Blackbirds fell across MC (there were 6 games without a victory).
But the teams fronts are all right. Mane can be called a successful transfer for the hosts, and away team gained a lot with De Bruyne purchase. As a result, the players immediately became key ones in their clubs (8 goals and 6 assists on the Senegalese account and 2 goals + 11 assists on the Belgian one). In addition, Silva, Sterling are ok, Toure returned to the base successfully, and the top MC scorer Aguero came back after suspension. Liverpool lost Coutinho, a serious loss, but there are enough good players to score: Lallana, Firmino, Milner play well.
Premier League Betting Tip: Liverpool vs Manchester City
That is not surprising the teams score a lot with such an attack line. There are 41 goals on the hosts account, and in 7 home matches Liverpool scored 21 goals, an average of 3 per game! Only Chelsea scored more at home, but the Londoners held 9 matches at Stamford Bridge. MC got 39 goals, and the Citizens in 9 away games scored 22 goals, the best league result. The hosts left the field without a goal for a three times, but in 12 of 17 matches the Merseysides scored at least 2 goals, in 6 of 17 games got total over 2.5. The Citizens couldn’t break only Tottenham defense, while MC players also scored at least 2 goals in 12 games, and in 6 matches even got the total.
The hosts scored 11 goals, conceded 6 in last 5 matches, and total was broken in 3 games. MC got 10 goals and conceded 8 for the same period, total over 2.5 went in 4 out of 5 matches. The squads played successfully with the other 2 teams out of top 4. Liverpool beat Arsenal (3 – 4) and Chelsea (1 – 2), MC conceded to the current leader (1 – 3) and beat the Gunners (2 – 1). There are a lot of reasonable arguments in favor of total over 2.5 in a duel between the Reds and the Citizens, so this will be my choice. Although, I can offer alternatives as well.
Liverpool to win odds: 2.25 at RealDealBet
Draw odds: 6.00 at TipBet
Manchester City to win odds: 3.00 at YouWin
Under 2.5 odds: 2.20 at YouWin
Over 2.5 odds: 1.58 at RealDealBet